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7-19-01                                                                                           Vol. 4: No. 6
RealtyStocks' Observer
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Rent a Condo for the 2002 Winter Olympics!
See: ParkCityTownhome.com


Monthly Feature:
REITS AND TECHNOLOGY BACKLASH

A. Technology Backlash in Real Estate
B. REITs vx. Stocks
C. Realcomm 2001
D. Large Cap REIT Performance
E. Equity REIT Performance
F. Mortgage REIT Performance
G. Realty Corporations

A. TECHNOLOGY BACKLASH IN REAL ESTATE
Commercial real estate is getting hit with a technology backlash that is not widely acknowledged, and with an impact that is yet to be determined. One area involves the failure of many of the building centric telecommunication providers (BLECs) and the issues surrounding the ownership of their equipment and wiring within buildings. A great number of all types of REIT properties, primarily office buildings, were wired as quickly as possible over the last couple of years to provide broadband service to tenants. Although multiple firms often wired the buildings at no cost to the landlord, they frequently clogged up the riser space in high-rise buildings. With many of these BLECs out of business or in default, multiple issues arise.

First, in many situations it appears the wiring and equipment does not revert to the landlord. Instead, the creditors may have the right to access the building to strip out whatever may be valuable. This can cause some disruption in building operations, but more importantly, it may deem the remaining wiring inoperative, still create crowded risers and incur expenses to the landlord to remove the wiring or make it workable again. Second, since the installation of the wiring was often not completed by BLECs but by independent contractors, many of whom were not paid, some of these contractors are filing mechanical liens against the buildings or the tenants. Depending upon the terms of the contracts and the leases, not only may additional costs be incurred by landlords, tenants, or both, but it may temporarily prevent a building from being sold or refinanced. Obviously this can also place some strain upon tenant landlord relationships and require more legal and administrative costs to owners.

Another technology backlash with bricks and mortar involves improvements in wireless telecommunications and the Right to Access laws. Rather than building owners having a captive audience where they can automatically place themselves in a position to benefit from additional services that tenants may require such as telecommunications, some tenants are finding ways to circumvent landlord services. Right to Access laws may increase the options for tenants while improvements in telecommunications may make it easier for tenants to avoid the need to utilize the wiring installed in many buildings.

Possibly the most recognized impact upon REITs and other real estate firms may be the write downs and losses involved in some of their investments and partnerships in technology ventures. Since regulations limit a REITs investment in such areas, however, these misfortunes are not expected to have any substantial affect upon any REIT.

Although many REITs jumped on the bandwagon to create smart buildings, some of their actions no longer look very smart. Instead of technology allowing REITs and building owners an opportunity for additional revenue sources, it may create more expenses - at least in the immediate future. It may also make REITs much more cautious in considering opportunities that do not directly involve real estate, even though they are now allowed to invest a limited amount of their assets in taxable operations under the REIT Modernization Act of 1999.   Top


B. REITs vs. STOCKS
Until this past year, many investors ignored asset allocation and Modern Portfolio Theory, thinking that it was no longer important to diversify investments in other asset classes like cash, bonds or real estate. Needless to say, in today's economic environment, a great more attention is now given to asset allocation. An important issue with diversification, especially when the stock market is not performing well, are finding investments that are not highly correlated with stocks.

For years, many academics have known that real estate seems to be inversely correlated with stocks. Whether or not REITs behave closer to the equity real estate or stocks, however, is less clear. Although REITs own real estate, they are also stocks, and hence the reason for this uncertainty. In light of the current economy and the behavior of REITs and stocks over the last several years, along with some new research, more people are believing that REITs are non-correlated to stocks. Should this position be more widely adopted among financial planners, trust officers and investors, it could help provide more strength to REITs should there be continued contraction in the equity markets.

However, on the flip side there is increasing speculation that a REITs might become candidates for inclusion in the S&P 500 eventually making them more apt to perform like stocks. The aforementioned REIT Modernization Act may help REITs be perceived a little more like other stocks and may aid this process. More importantly, the market value of some REITs are becoming large enough to also warrant consideration for S&P inclusion. For instance, Equity Office Properties (EOP) and their recent acquisition of Spieker Properties (SPK) would rank about 175th in size on the S&P 500. The price of EOP would probably benefit from its possible addition to the S&P. However, if it were to be added to the noted index and its price influenced by index option and stock trading, EOP could begin to affect the performance of REIT indices since it is such a significant component. If other REITs were also added to the S&P 500 in the future, it may also increase their ability to behave more like stocks than they have in the past.   Top


C. REALCOMM 2002
Last week was the third annual conference of a gathering of real estate professionals interested in technology, held in Dallas. Approximately 2,500 people and over 150 exhibitors were in attendance. Despite the downturn in many technology conferences in recent months, it is noteworthy that the Realcomm conference had about the same attendance as last year. Although REITs and real estate owners may be less enthusiastic about technology than a year ago, the exhibits and demonstrations indicated that technology and its applications for real estate are increasing. There may be a lull in the adoption of technology in real estate, but there is little doubt that it will impact this industry. This editor moderated the Real Estate Investment Trust panel at Realcomm and engaged executives from some leading REITs into discussions about technology trends in their firms. A tape on the panel, as well as dozens of other interested topics, are available from the Realcomm site at www.realcomm.com
. This editor moderated the Real Estate Investment Trust panel at Realcomm and engaged executives from some leading REITs into discussions about technology trends in their firms. A tape on the panel, as well as dozens of other interested topics, are available from the Realcomm site at www.realcomm.com.   Top


D. LARGE CAP REIT PERFORMANCE
The 20 largest REITs posted their second monthly increase in a row, with a gain of 1.4% in May. The largest monthly gainers were two retail firms, Rouse (RSE) rising 6.2% and General Growth gaining 4.5%. The worst performers were Archstone Communities and CarrAmerica, both down -2.9% . Of note, large cap REITs are still underperforming the broader REIT market, as they have all year. (Please see
Large Cap REITs.)   Top


E. EQUITY REIT PERFORMANCE
Equity REIT prices were up 3.12% in May. The best performing groups for the month were
Hotels and Health Care, gaining 10.72% and 6.47%, respectively. All groups were up except for one, Retail Factory Outlets off -4.9%, respectively. The best performing Equity REITs for May were Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI) and Westfield America (WEA), up 14.3% and 13.8%, respectively. The worst monthly performers were healthcare REITs, Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. (OHI) and LYC Properties, Inc. (LTC), down -51.3% and -12.6%, respectively. (Please see Equity Gainers and Losers.).   Top


F. MORTGAGE REIT PERFORMANCE
Mortgage REITs again posted an increase with a 3.04% gain in May; the first month this year they trailed Equity REITs. The best performing Mortgage REIT group was Residential & Commercial Mortgages up 8.03%. The best performing Mortgage REIT for May was Dynex Capital (DX), up 22.9%. The worst monthly performers were Impac Commercial (ICH), down -40.2%, and Fog Cutter Capital (FCCG), falling -19%. For (Please see Mortgage Gainers and Losers.)   Top


G. REALTY CORPORATIONS
Realty and Housing Corporations out performed REITs in May with an increase of 3.86%. The best monthly performing groups were
Construction & Engineering and Home Builders. The worst performing group was Tech & Net, down -13.60 for February. The best monthly stocks were Foster Wheeler Corp (FWC) up 63.9%, Chicago Bridge & Iron Co. (CBI) rising 37.9% and Schuler Homes, Inc. (SHLR) up 33.8%. The worst monthly stocks were Silverleaf Resorts, Inc (SVR) and Teligent, Inc (TGNT) down -62.1% and -46.7%. (Please see Realty Corp. Gainers and Losers.)   Top


Stock Changes - Stock symbols BMCC changed to DOLL, STRS changed to STRSD, and TGNT changed to TGNQE. The stock symbols FFD, FRW, HFD, HSTRQ, and LNDL have been deleted.   Top

Note: In reporting group percentage changes, stocks that were under $1 are excluded from our calculations. If a stock is under $1 for more than two months, it is subject to removal from our coverage. All gains or losses regarding Realty Stocks are price changes only; dividends are excluded.

Disclaimer: The material provided herein should not be taken as endorsements or recommendations to invest in a stock, fund, a group of stocks or other securities. No guarantee can be made as to the expected performance of such investments. Investors should consult all available information, including data external to RealtyStocks and associated Web sites, and exercise own best judgment before making any investment decisions. The author may have equity positions in some of the companies covered in RealtyStocks, which may change from time to time, and will divulge such information upon request   Top


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